Burke Lakefront Airport can play a critical role in Cleveland's revival

The following article was published as a “Personal View” in Crain’s Cleveland Business on December 20, 2024 (online) and January 13, 2025 (print edition), penned by The Center for Cleveland’s Board Chair, Mark Zannoni.

Burke Lakefront Airport can play a critical role in Cleveland's revival 

Mark Zannoni, December 20, 2024

There has been much chatter lately about closing Burke Lakefront Airport. But it makes no sense to destroy a functioning economic asset that, if leveraged properly, could be used to grow the city’s economy and population.

The Bibb administration, unfortunately, does not do this. To remove an irreplaceable asset for “lakefront development” when the land north of Huntington Bank Stadium remains vacant, and countless plans and attempts to develop it have failed, is mind-boggling.

Moreover, if the stadium where the Browns now play is dismantled after their lease expires, there will be even more space to develop. A convenient downtown airport of Burke’s caliber makes the city stand apart among competitor markets and can be used to truly grow and transform Cleveland.

Cleveland is at a turning point. The last 60 years need not be the same trend line for the next 60.

From 1900 to 1940, the city’s population grew by more than 130%. Burke opened in 1947, and the city reached its population peak in 1950. In more recent decades, we have seen the city’s decline — major population and economic losses in the city, and loss of global prestige. 

The population of Greater Cleveland, defined as Cuyahoga and the six outer counties, has decreased by 8% since its 1970 peak, while the U.S. as a whole has grown 62% in that time. The city’s last Census count in 2020 was lower than that of the 1900 Census.

But the recent past should not be used to guide the future.

The Cleveland of the coming years is in a far different America than the one of recent decades. Climate change is creating profound weather systems, with storms more frequent and more devastating than before particularly affecting the eastern seaboard. If this trend continues, as expected, insurance companies will raise rates so high that living in many coastal areas will be unaffordable. COVID, technology innovations and new post-pandemic worker demands have given rise to work-from-home, where it is possible to be in Cleveland yet work for firms based elsewhere.

The combination of Cleveland’s lower cost of living while also having world-class, big-city amenities makes it an ideal place to move to from more expensive cities and climate-impacted places. As these trends intensify, Cleveland can be a direct beneficiary of such migrations. In other words, Cleveland — if the city plays its cards right — can thrive once again. As Cleveland Hopkins International Airport becomes more congested than ever, a secondary airport is critical to this emerging era of renewal.

Burke is not well understood, which may explain some of the current anti-Burke sentiment.

No other nearby airport has the capacity and capabilities of Burke. Its main runway, at 6,604 feet, is longer than either runway at Chicago Midway and is only 388 feet shorter than New York LaGuardia’s two runways. 

Burke can, and does, handle large planes such as the Boeing 757. It also has customs landing rights and international arrivals capabilities, and it's the hub of Cleveland Clinic’s fleet of jets, which is crucial given that health care is a leading economic sector for the city. Travel time to the Clinic from Hopkins or Cuyahoga County Airport is 62% and 80% longer, respectively, than from Burke.

Cuyahoga County Airport is not a replacement for Burke, as cited by some, though it could be on the capacity front if the communities around it agree to major expansion, 24-hour operations, more leaded fuel impacts on nearby children, and increased traffic and noise. But given its location near the Lake County line, it would never provide the economic benefits of Burke with its location downtown, the region’s largest employment and activity hub.

Burke can be an economic driver for a city that sorely needs jobs and must compete with booming cities across the country. But by minimizing infrastructure improvements and creating a hostile environment for private-sector investment, the city is not acting in the best long-term interests of the residents and businesses of Cleveland.

The argument that the airport prevents lakefront development is false. The western runway protection zone at Burke certainly does not preclude development at the scale that would be, and has been, planned for the area around the stadium. The stadium, and Municipal Stadium before it, is evidence that development with height can occur.

In addition to providing better air service making Cleveland a stronger city for global business, Burke can inspire “airport-centric” ideas. For example, a French company just selected Daytona Beach Airport for a factory site to build its new hybrid-electric regional airplanes. Something similar could be pursued for Burke. How about being a test airport for new, non-leaded aviation fuel for general aviation? How about a new seaplane service to Put-in-Bay and Canada? LaGuardia had its famous Marine Terminal for PanAm’s Clippers, in addition to the regular terminals for planes using runways. Now, right in Midtown, NYC’s seaplane terminal is on the East River at E. 23 St. The possibilities for Burke are endless.

Additionally, the important type of traffic at Burke is increasing, not decreasing.

The traffic segment that matters most to growing the city’s economy is itinerant flight activity, mostly by air carriers and what the Federal Aviation Administration calls “air taxis,” which are planes for hire carrying 60 or fewer passengers. Comparing January-to-October 2024 to the like period in 2019 (the last full similar period before COVID), flights are up 16%. And business traffic from January-to-October 2023 to the like period in 2024 is up 10% in only one year. It’s clearly not the time to close an airport while business traffic is trending up strongly, feeding and growing the economy of the city.

And while Burke adds significant benefit to the city, it operates at no cost to taxpayers, as the city’s two airports comprise an enterprise fund and function as an “airport system.” Any operating deficits are covered by revenues at Hopkins, given the benefits of Burke to passengers at Hopkins. Burke enables the separation of traffic, giving smaller, general aviation aircraft an alternative to Hopkins. That need, thoughtfully envisioned by the planners of Burke, is still true today. Moreover, Burke supports on-time performance for scheduled airliners by minimizing Hopkins congestion and making for safer skies over Cleveland.

Another example of Burke’s potential can be seen by looking at Southwest Airlines. When Southwest was seeking to enter the Cleveland market in the early 1990s, the airline initially selected Burke over Hopkins, as Burke fit Southwest’s market strategy of serving less-congested airports in major U.S. markets. However, at around the same time, two market changes occurred. Midway Airlines dissolved in bankruptcy, and USAir acquired Piedmont. As a result, four contiguous gates suddenly opened at Hopkins, an unusual event, and Southwest ultimately went there. 

People often cite Chicago’s now-closed Meigs field and its short, 3,900-foot runway as a parallel airport for Burke. However, the real secondary airport in Chicago is Midway (whose runways also are shorter than Burke’s), which is, of course, still open. The only similarity between Burke and Meigs is that they were both airports and both on the water. By that logic, Burke also is like New York JFK, as they are both airports and on the water. Hence, Meigs-Burke is a false parallel.

Since Burke opened, air travel has expanded profoundly and continues to grow. Population and employment in Cleveland can return to growth as well. It’s in our power if we make the right decisions with proper leadership. External events and trends such as severe weather, rising living and business costs in other cities, and the need for Great Lakes water are in our favor, but we must recognize these and seize the current opportunity, not close a critical economic asset that could facilitate our growth.

Closing Burke for any reason including for a football stadium would demonstrate a clear lack of vision on global trends and would undermine Cleveland’s future and potential. (Land for a new stadium could be found elsewhere in the city.)

 Accordingly, we should be investing in Burke and therefore Cleveland’s future. The odds are in our favor as they were 100 years ago. In 1920, we were the fifth-largest city in America. We’re now 54th. Let’s not squander this new opportunity with short-sightedness, defeatism, and a deep lack of understanding of the value, capabilities and role of Burke. Let’s return to growth and prosperity.

Mark Zannoni is board president of The Center for Cleveland, a nonprofit focused on economic and population growth of the city of Cleveland and the region. He is not a pilot and has no financial interests at Burke.

Bibb Must Enforce the Law Preventing the Cleveland Browns’ Move to Brook Park

We feel compelled to weigh in on the Cleveland Browns discussion around the move to suburban Brook Park.  We are very baffled by Mayor Bibb’s response to Browns’ owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam’s public statement this week that they will “…focus on making a dome stadium and adjacent development in Brook Park” where Bibb lamented being “deeply, deeply disappointed” in a City Hall news conference.

One of Bibb’ primary jobs as mayor is to enforce the law (at which, we submit he’s a bit challenged given his lack of effective real-time response to the 16 street takeovers a few weeks ago that has become a major public embarrassment for the city).

There is a law in place, Section 9.67 of the Ohio Revised Code, “Restrictions on owner of professional sports team that uses a tax-supported facility,” sometimes called the “Art Modell Law” enacted after Art Modell moved the Browns from Cleveland to Baltimore in the mid 90s. The law actually gives the City of Cleveland the upper hand here and the law must be enforced. If Bibb fails to enforce the law, he is abdicating his duty as mayor, and with an election roughly one year away, he would be foolish to do so. Elections aside, he will always be best known as the mayor who lost the Browns despite a law on the books that prevented such a loss.

The law states:

Ohio Revised Code Section 9.67 - Restrictions on owner of professional sports team that uses a tax-supported facility. Effective June 20, 1996.

No owner of a professional sports team that uses a tax-supported facility for most of its home games and receives financial assistance from the state or a political subdivision thereof shall cease playing most of its home games at the facility and begin playing most of its home games elsewhere unless the owner either:

(A) Enters into an agreement with the political subdivision permitting the team to play most of its home games elsewhere;

(B) Gives the political subdivision in which the facility is located not less than six months' advance notice of the owner's intention to cease playing most of its home games at the facility and, during the six months after such notice, gives the political subdivision or any individual or group of individuals who reside in the area the opportunity to purchase the team.

[https://codes.ohio.gov/ohio-revised-code/section-9.67]

In other words, under paragraph A, the Browns can only move to Brook Park if Bibb lets them do so—which if does, he is not serving the city and is hurting his entire electoral base given the loss of tax revenues to the city which funds police and other city services. His inaction will also hurt existing businesses and dissuade any new prospective businesses from opening or moving to the city given a reputation of lawlessness and ineffective governance.

Under paragraph B, the Mayor can force a sale of the team to the city or private parties. Creative funding can be used and the mayor or a designee could put assemble a limited liability partnership or other entity to be new owners if a single buyer does not step forward. Forbes recently valued the Browns at $4.6B. While that may seem like a large number, it could be crowd-sourced among the roughly 2.8 million people in Cleveland (defined as Cuyahoga and the six outer counties) or the City itself, either solely or in partnership with others, could buy the team and the profits would readily pay debt service while providing more funds for police, EMS, and other city needs.

The Haslams are likely very aware of this law. In fact, according to a recent Signal Cleveland article, the Haslams personally benefitted from the it:  “… the Haslams were able to purchase the Columbus Crew soccer team in part because the former club owners – who wanted to move the team out of Columbus – were required to follow the Art Modell law.”  

Notice the wording of the law and the exact language used by the Haslams. The law states,

“No owner of a professional sports team that uses a tax-supported facility for most of its home games and receives financial assistance from the state or a political subdivision thereof shall cease playing most of its home games at the facility and begin playing most of its home games elsewhere unless the owner…..gives the political subdivision in which the facility is located not less than six months' advance notice of the owner's intention to cease playing most of its home games at the facility….”

Did the Haslams actually give such notice?  Their public statement said:

“We have communicated to the Mayor and his team at every step of the process regarding our mutual efforts to keep the stadium downtown and we conveyed to them yesterday, our most impactful investment for our region is to focus on making a dome stadium and adjacent development in Brook Park a reality.”

It’s a critical point—when did the clock start ticking, if it has at all? Is the Haslams’ October 17th statement the “advance notice of the owner’s intention”? They used the word “focus” on “Brook Park”. However, the statement is being treated as the official statement to cease operations in the city of Cleveland and a court could rule that the city’s response to the statement is its acceptance of a fact.

Is the language intentionally vague so the city does not act on enforcing the law and loses the opportunity as there a six-month time window to respond?  Or is the language intentionally vague as part of the yet-ongoing negotiation strategy of the Haslams to get more than the $461 million that Bibb has already offered them?

Regardless of how bad a move to Brook Park may be for the public and how lucrative it could be for the Haslams, Bibb must uphold and enforce the law, and act strategically and intelligently given the tight timeframe. If “official notice” has not yet been given, then he should use this as “extra time” before the six-month window to find a potentially new local owner or owners or undertake the preparatory financial work to buy the team as a city asset. City ownership would significantly benefit the city and its residents. If “official notice” has indeed been given on October 17, he must move quickly to fulfill his legal obligation as mayor.

We think a move to Brook Park is ludicrous and the suburb does not have the physical or operational infrastructure to host the team. A move to Brook Park negatively impacts the City of Cleveland, will cause a traffic nightmare for the people and businesses of Brook Park and anyone trying to get to Hopkins Airport from nearby roads on game days, will hurt parking revenue at Hopkins Airport (though may increase Red Line rapid transit ridership), and negatively impacts fans to be limited to a Browns-controlled experience vs enjoying a variety of restaurants and life in a real city versus at a bland suburban development  where prices for everything (parking, shopping, restaurants, etc.) can be centrally controlled. And, of course, we get it. Such control is highly lucrative. Parking alone could bring in $1.2M per game, at $50 per game at 24,000 spaces.

However, only Dee and Jimmy Haslam and those who they have chosen, know what their real plans are and whether they really want to move to the burbs or are just pretending such as part of their negotiation strategy with the city of Cleveland. Their statement on October 17th may indeed just be part of this strategy or it may be their true intentions and perhaps the wording of their publicly-issued “statement” intentionally masked this to avoid the Bibb from noticing that he has six months left to buy the team or find a new owner.

As for locations in the city, we do not support destroying viable, public assets for private interests. Hence, the reported offer of Burke Airport by Mayor Bibb is ludicrous to us. We support a Downtown location, which offers not only a central location for the entire region, but the best transportation infrastructure (roads, rail transit, and bus transit) and the established concentration of restaurants, hotels, and other amenities. The current location is feasible. However, a new location would allow for construction to occur while the current field is in use and would open up the area between W. 3 and E. 9 north of the Shoreway to new, daily, year-round uses. Our favored location is the area around Commercial Road and E. 9 St. Extension (south of the Innerbelt) with a new, rapid station immediately adjacent to the stadium. This would be diagonally southwest of Progressive Field, across I-90. The location also benefits from riverfront property where new restaurants or apartments could be built as supporting and adjacent uses.

At that location, the Haslams can have everything they wanted—a dome, some (multi-level) parking, and “adjacent development” and also have riverfront access and a true “Cleveland vibe” versus being in a non-descript, bland suburb.  And, most importantly, they can keep ownership of their team, and likely get the half billion dollars that Bibb has already offered them. 

Otherwise, Bibb must enforce the law.

Newly-released Economic Data Shows Cleveland’s Economy Grew Significantly in 2022, Surpassing Growth Rates of NYC, Chicago, and other Key Cities

Earlier this month the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its County Estimates for local area gross domestic product (GDP).  Cleveland’s core county, Cuyahoga, grew at 3.3% between 2021 and 2022. A 3.3% annual growth rate is significant, and if constant, would be the equivalent of 38% growth compounded over ten years, and a full doubling of the economy in 22 years.

Comparing Cleveland to other cities we track for economic growth and development, Cleveland surpassed the GDP growth of all of our standard benchmarking cities—Detroit (2.5%), New York (2.3%), Philadelphia (2.3%), Chicago (2.2%), and Pittsburgh (1.0%).  Compared to other cities within the state of Ohio, Cleveland led market growth as well surpassing Cincinnati (1.5%) and Columbus, Ohio (0.6%).  Columbus had the second-lowest growth rate in our study, above only San Francisco (-2.4%), which was the only city with negative growth. The sunbelt cities of Miami (5.8%) and Dallas (5.7%) led the growth of all cities in our analysis, continuing the trend in those cities, and represented the only two cities that surpassed Cleveland growth rates.

The table below depicts the real change in GDP from 2021 to 2022 of 15 economic markets we studied, using data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Red Line Realignment: A New Subway Plan for Downtown Cleveland

Rail transit is a tool and major catalyst for economic development and private sector investment, and an absolute necessity for major, global cities, which Cleveland should aspire to be once again. After decades of stagnancy, Cleveland needs vision and a transformative project that will truly change its future trajectory.

A short, 1.7-mile realignment of the RTA Red Line between Tower City and East 34 St. to provide three Downtown subway stations—at E. 9-Prospect, E. 17-Euclid, and E. 22-Community College Ave—would transform Cleveland—not just Downtown, but the entire City and Region. With infrastructure a key priority of the Biden administration and with over $4 trillion aimed at economic recovery, the opportunity for construction of the subway is more achievable now than at any time in decades. The project would help the City resume its trajectory of economic and population growth and regain its global significance. 

The benefits are profound and far reaching—well beyond simply improved transportation and air quality. The subway will not only enable, but also induce economic activity and growth. The subway will allow for increased density, enable better uses of constrained land, increase property values, result in stronger demand for real estate near stations, attract a deeper talent pool for companies region-wide, increase local economic competitiveness, produce higher income and property tax revenues for local governments and school districts, and enable a higher quality of life for residents.

Continual rejection since the 1950s of a Downtown Cleveland subway—despite Cuyahoga voters passing a bond issue for one in 1953—has limited development and contributed to continual city and regional population decline, reduction of the city’s economic relevancy and global stature, and decrease of the region’s economic competitiveness. There is certainly a cost of not building the subway.

To that end, please see—and support—our just-released report, Red Line Realignment:  A New Subway Plan for Downtown Cleveland.

Cleveland: A Hotter Real Estate Market than Miami

By Mark Zannoni, The Center for Cleveland
March 13, 2021

This past Friday, March 12th, a remarkable few words about Cleveland appeared in an article on a South Florida real estate news website.  Spider, a real estate investment firm with offices in Miami and throughout Latin America, sold a property in Miami that it had purchased in 2015, scrapping its plans to construct a 12-story, 93-unit condo building.

Here’s the notable part: “Spider’s decision to exit Miami is driven by the city’s high condo inventory and decreasing unit prices, [Spider’s] Goldenberg said. The firm now is focusing on Detroit and Cleveland, which have upside potential and where investors will get a higher return.”

In other words, Cleveland in the eyes of an international real estate investor is hot and, depending on the project type, can provide even higher rates of return than Miami.    

After a decade of a building boom, Miami’s condo market is overbuilt; meanwhile, Cleveland suffers from a profound lack of condos.  Despite all the fine for-rent apartment construction around the city in recent years, the market excludes those who want high-rise and urban-amenities living, but simply do not want to spend $25K-50K per year in rent. Hence, with the lack of high-rise condo offerings, people are forced into low-rise townhomes or single-family homes, or pushed to live in another city where such common housing options are more readily available. Moreover, condos are important for the economic stability of the city as during economic downturns, neighborhoods, such as rental-heavy Downtown, need owner-occupied (and high-rise) residences whose occupants won’t readily split as renters can once the option to not renew a lease comes around.

But getting back to the article, it’s great to see Cleveland being more readily recognized as a strong and desirable city for international real estate investment—and so much so that an investor is scrapping a condo project in Miami and is looking northward to the shores of Lake Erie instead.

Please stop saying “Northeast Ohio”

The following article was published as a “Personal View” in Crain’s Cleveland Business on December 14, 2020 and was penned by The Center for Cleveland’s Board Chair, Mark Zannoni.

Please stop saying “Northeast Ohio” 

Mark Zannoni, December 14, 2020

The "Northeast Ohio" moniker is destroying Cleveland's brand and identity outside the region and, as such, severely impacting our ability to achieve economic development and population growth. Please stop saying "Northeast Ohio" unless referring to the geography that encompasses Cleveland, Akron, Canton and Youngstown.

"Cleveland" or "Greater Cleveland" is the region, which includes Cuyahoga and the six outer counties of Lorain, Medina Summit, Portage, Geauga and Lake. Imagine if people in Chicago started using "Northeast Illinois" when referring to their city and region. That would sound quite silly, but that is exactly what we are doing here.

The "Northeast Ohio" craze can be traced to various origins:

  • The desire for "regionalism," and the pursuit of this vision by name only without any substance;

  • The intention to eliminate the word "Cleveland" and avoid its allusions to bankruptcy, the flames on the Cuyahoga or in Mayor Ralph Perk's hair, the mooning of someone by the president of the Board of Education out a car window on I-271, and other embarrassing, but serious, events like losing 57% of the population between 1950 and 2010;

  • The feelings of people within the seven counties who no longer see themselves as part of "Cleveland," but since most of their capital, customers, members or employees are from Greater Cleveland instead say "Northeast Ohio"; and,

  • The good intentions of people who think saying "Northeast Ohio" will actually help Cleveland without realizing it is doing the opposite.

There is an urgent need to use "Cleveland" instead of "Northeast Ohio." As a market and global center, Cleveland — and the region — has been steadily weakening. And the weaker the city, the more difficult it will be to prosper and grow as our competitors are gaining in strength — particularly as we just regained our title of "poorest city in America" with a 31% poverty rate. The population of the seven-county Cleveland region has actually decreased by 8% since its 1970 peak, when we had surpassed 3 million people, while the U.S. as whole has grown 62%. This means the city's relative importance in the U.S. has been steadily diminishing, and with it, our global influence; our ability to land new jobs and companies in the region; the necessary appeal to attract new talent; the allure for greater investment in new educational, retail and entertainment options; and even our ability to land at least one daily flight to mainland Europe by a major non-low-cost airline, which is essential for the city to compete.

As social media and the internet in general quickly allow users worldwide to gather information about a place, the more people use "Northeast Ohio," then the greater name recognition will be for "Ohio" and at Cleveland's expense. When it comes time to invest in a place, the well-oiled Columbus marketing machine that propagates that Columbus is the largest city in Ohio may benefit instead, even though markets and economies are not restricted to municipal boundaries unless you're a city-state like Singapore. The seven-county Cleveland region is the largest metropolitan economy in the state and has 30% more residents than metro Columbus. But Cleveland's growth potential is giving way to our little sister Columbus — and by our own doing.

Cities, not abstract regions, are what capture the imagination and drive culture, creativity, innovation and economies. Sure, "Northeast Ohio" is not obscure to those in Cleveland, but it is to those outside of it. And in terms of real geographic place names, we are trading "Cleveland" for "Ohio." But the terms bring to mind opposing concepts. Cleveland is an innovative and progressive place. Ohio is far less so. Cleveland had America’s first big city black mayor and 34 years later had the city’s first woman mayor. In the 53 years since Carl Stokes assumed office, Ohio has elected only white men as governors. Cleveland voted for Kennedy and Biden, while Ohio went for Nixon and Trump. (And in the most recent election, Ohio was redder than Texas.) Ohio is often associated by people outside the state as a place of farms; Cleveland is a major American city. So dropping "Cleveland" for an inappropriate term centered on "Ohio" is not only geographically inaccurate, but undermines the very essence and soul of the city.

Imagine (once again) if someone said, "You want to open a plant in Germany? Come to Southwest Hessen!" Meanwhile another person says, "Come to Berlin!" Berlin may win out here as it is an established and well-known city while "Southwest Hessen" may be instantly dismissed or forgotten as the listener wants to be in a familiar city with an established workforce. But "Southwest Hessen" is where Frankfurt is located. Why wouldn't Frankfurt say Frankfurt? They do. And likewise, we too should use the name of our city, as that is the place that is globally known, not a state name preceded by a modifier. Moreover, it is significantly more common outside the U.S. for individuals to refer to U.S. places as cities, not states.

Some businesses with locations that are only in Cuyahoga County say "Northeast Ohio" as they try to capture customers from neighboring counties and think they must say "NEO" to do so. The solution is simple: use "Greater Cleveland" if afraid to say "Cleveland." Rather than chase market share in a shrinking pool, growing the full region by not killing the brand will result in a larger market for all and greater revenues at the end of the day.

"Northeast Ohio" is not a synonym for "Cleveland" or "Greater Cleveland." If you do not mean the geography spanning Cleveland to Akron/Canton to Youngstown, please stop saying "Northeast Ohio," as its usage is weakening one of the greatest cities in the world, adversely affecting economic development and job growth, fueling the growth of Columbus and other competitor cities, and severely hurting our national and global standing and identity.

Zannoni is board president of The Center for Cleveland, a nonprofit focused on economic and population growth of the city of Cleveland and the region.

 

Estimated Revenue Shortfall for the City of Cleveland from the Covid-19 Recession

by Mark Zannoni/Center for Cleveland
April 17, 2020

How severe of a revenue hit will the City face for FY2021 from the current recession? Revenue shortfalls for the City of Cleveland are expected to be between $187M and $305M for FY2021, calculated for less severe and more severe scenarios. These amounts in percentage terms are 6.4% and 10.4%, respectively, relative to projected revenues without a global health pandemic and resulting recession. 

A detailed financial study of the largest US cities was undertaken to determine the revenue impacts to city budgets from the covid-19 recession. The shortfalls for each city are directly correlated to its type of revenue sources. Cities that rely heavily on sales tax, for example, are hit harder than say, cities that rely more heavily on property tax, as the former relies on retail spending which has been affected deeply in recent months.

The study was conducted by three professors, Andrew Reschovsky at the University of Wisconsin; Howard Chernick, professor emeritus of economics at Hunter College and CUNY; and David Copeland at Georgia State University. The findings of the study—including the numbers on Cleveland, above—will be published next month in the National Tax Journal.  An article in the New York Times this morning covered some national highlights, but did not cover the details on Cleveland that we present here.

It is important to note that the numbers above represent not just City Hall, but the “fiscally standardized city” so that cities across the US could be compared to one another. Notes Prof. Reschovsky, “this includes the municipal government of Cleveland, plus the relevant share of revenues raised for the overlying county government, independent school districts, and special districts that serve the residents and businesses of Cleveland.  Of total general revenue in 2017 of the Cleveland fiscally standardized city, only 35% was attributable to the City of Cleveland municipal government.”

150 cities were analyzed and the average shortfall was 5.5% in the less severe scenario and 9.0% in the more severe scenario. Hence, the impacts in Cleveland at a shortfall of 6.4% to 10.4%, are slightly larger.  While Cleveland is not in the graphic in the New York Times article, if it were, the City would generally fall between San Francisco and Denver in that image.

In the “more severe” scenario, according to the study, the relative importance of the various sources of the projected shortfalls are:

  • State aid cuts:  32.2%

  • General and selective sales taxes: 14.2%

  • Income and other taxes: 19.1%

  • User charges: 23.0%

  • Misc. general revenue: 10.8%

(This is not saying that state aid cuts will be 32.2%, rather, of the full amount of revenue shortfall experienced by the city, 32.2% of it will be from a decrease in aid from the state of Ohio.)

Look for the full study published in the September issue of the National Tax Journal, and we’d like to thank Prof. Reschovsky for sharing the findings and insights on Cleveland before publication.